Probability

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Probability

Many phenomenons of business, economics and social science posses uncertainly on the outcomes may not always be the same even under the same set of circumstances. They lack deterministic regularity in its outcomes. In our day to day life, we also use the concept of probability, for example, it might rain today, probably the price of X share will go up, probably ‘X’ team will win the match, there are good chances that our sales will go up by 10 percent next year, our company may cross the target profit this year. All these terms may, probably, possibly, likely, etc. convey the same sense i.e., the events are not certain to take place. It connotes the sense that there is uncertainty about the happening of an event. The theory of probability has its origin in the game of chances relating to gambling such as tossing of a coin, throwing a dice, drawing a card from a pack of cards etc. Over the year, different authorities contributed in developing the probability theory namely Galileo. Probability theory is being applied in decision making in economics, business, political, social, medicine, insurance etc. Probability is a language in which we discuss uncertainty. Before one can communicate with another in this language.

Experiment, Outcomes, Events and Sample Space:

Probability in common Parlance canoes the chances of occurrence of an event or happening. A process which could lead to two or more than two different outcomes and there is uncertainty as to which outcome will occur is called experiment. For example:

  • Tossing of a coin
  • Rolling a dice
  • Voters preference for a candidate
  • Launching of a new product in the market
  • Asking worker whether he has joined the trade union.

All these process have three features:

  • There are two or more than two possible outcomes.
  • It is possible to specify all the outcomes in advance.
  • There is uncertainty about the outcomes or happening.
Any process which has all the three features is called a random experiment in probability theory terminology.

Classical Approach:

The classical approach to probability is the oldest and simplest one. It originated from the game of chances like tossing of a coin, throwing a dice, pack of cards etc. It is based on considerations of symmetry and logic. The basic assumption in classical approach is, the outcomes are ‘equally likely’ e.g. tossing a coin there are equal chances of Head and tail.

Subjective Probability Approach

Subjective probabilities are based on the beliefs of the person making probability assessments. Thus it may differ from person to person or from time for the same person. In subjective probability assessment individual makes estimates on the basis of past experience, and education. Sometimes it might it might be hunches or intuition. Management is interested in knowing the probability of a major nuclear accident at this location. In these situations neither classical nor relative frequency approach helps in calculating the probabilities.

Probability Rules:

Decision makers who use probabilities are concerned with two conditions: -

  • The case where one event or another event will occur i.e., probability of either A or event B.
  • The case where two or more events will occur simultaneously i.e., probability of occurrence of event A and B

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